In a client review this week, someone who was sitting on some cash asked me 'do you think I should keep sitting on cash until after the Fed hikes rates in September?'
The headlines this week have been dominated by the question: will the Federal Reserve raise interest rates again this month, or hold steady? As of last Thursday, the market was literally split down the middle — 50/50 odds on either outcome. Treasury yields moved. Stocks rallied. The President is practically yelling at the FOMC to cut rates, while most economic commentators are begging them to raise.
I've been doing this long enough to know what happens to investors during moments like these...They wait. And the waiting is quietly the most expensive thing they do.
The facts right now
Inflation remains above the Fed's 2% target — August's reading came in at 3.4% year over year — and the Fed is weighing whether another rate hike is the right call. The 10-year Treasury yield is sitting near 4.84%. Oil prices are elevated due to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Markets are trading near record highs.
There is genuine uncertainty in this environment. That part is real.
But here's what I keep coming back to: the uncertainty itself isn't new. And your financial plan shouldn't be contingent on it resolving.
The waiting trap
One of the most common things I hear in conversations right now sounds something like this: "I'm waiting for a market pullback so I can get in." Or the reverse: "Should we take some off the table and redeploy after the market corrects?"
Both versions of that thinking share a common assumption — that there will be a clear, recognizable signal to act. That one morning you'll wake up and it will simply be obvious.
That signal almost never arrives the way we expect. The clearest entry points tend to look obvious only in hindsight. By the time the uncertainty fully resolves, the opportunity has usually already moved.
This isn't a knock on the people who think this way, even self identified 'logical people' are emotional with their money decisions. When things feel unsettled, our instinct is to want more information before committing. But in investing, "more information" can quietly become months or even years on the sidelines. And time on the sidelines has a real cost.
What matters more than the next Fed decision
Here's the thing I come back to with clients in moments like this: the outcome of the Federal Reserve's September meeting is unlikely to determine whether you are financially healthy fifteen or twenty years from now.
What will matter more is whether you:
- Have a plan built to handle volatility as a normal feature of markets, not a warning sign to act on
- Are invested in a way aligned with your actual time horizon and goals — not the news cycle
- Aren't holding more cash than your plan actually requires, simply because you're waiting for clarity that may never feel complete
- Have someone in your corner who can help you filter the noise when it gets loud
Markets have navigated Fed hiking cycles, holding cycles, geopolitical shocks, and uncertainty before. A well-constructed, long-term plan is designed to live through all of it — not to dodge every episode of it.
The filter I use
When a headline is driving a conversation about portfolio decisions, I tend to ask one question: would this decision make sense if I removed the headline?
If yes — staying the course, rebalancing because something drifted, adding to a position that fits the long-term plan — then it's probably worth doing.
If the decision only makes sense because of what the Fed might do at its next meeting, I'd slow down.
Markets will always have uncertain moments. The goal isn't to navigate every one of them perfectly. It's to have a strategy that doesn't require you to.
If you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for clarity — or wondering whether right now is a moment to act — that's a conversation worth having. Not because I can tell you what markets will do next. I can't, and neither can anyone else. But I can help you uncover if your indecisiveness is due to the lack of having a plan you are following.
Securities and advisory services offered through Cetera Advisors LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, a Broker-Dealer and Registered Investment Adviser. Harvest Investment Strategies LLC is under separate ownership from any other named entity.
Investment Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risks, and investment decisions should be based on your own goals, time horizon, and risk tolerance. The return and principal value of investments will fluctuate as market conditions change. When sold, investments may be worth more or less than their original cost.